India's Hydrogen Reality Check: 158 Announcements, 2 Operating Projects

India has announced 158 green hydrogen projects. Two, possibly three, are operational.

That is not a criticism — it reflects the reality of building a new industry from scratch. But most analyses miss a critical factor: the certification bottleneck is the commercialization bottleneck.

The Missing Bridge

India's National Green Hydrogen Mission allocated Rs 19,744 crore ($2.4B) through 2030. SIGHT Mode-2 offers up to Rs 50/kg in production incentives.

But there is a catch: no GHCI certification means no SIGHT disbursement.

GHCI certification is not just paperwork. It requires:

Hourly electricity tracking with 15-minute granularity
Renewable energy correlation proofs
Emissions accounting across multiple scopes
Continuous monitoring and audit trails

Most project developers underestimate the compliance timeline by 12-18 months.

The Valley of Death

India's hydrogen sector is entering a critical phase:

Policy frameworks: Done
Electrolyzer manufacturing: Ramping up
Offtake commitments: Increasing
Certification infrastructure: Lagging

The projects that solve certification early will capture disproportionate value. First-mover advantage in a compliance-heavy industry is measured in years, not months.

Certification as Competitive Advantage

The 2-3 operational projects today will become 20-30 by 2027. The ones with certification infrastructure already running will own the learning curve. For the remaining 155+ announced projects, the question is not "why so few operational?" but rather "which projects are building certification capability now for the 2027-2028 deployment wave?"

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