Three Markets, One Signal: Hydrogen Moves from Policy to Execution
India, EU, and Japan are simultaneously shifting from policy design to enforcement. The convergence signals a structural shift in how hydrogen markets will operate.
Three major hydrogen markets are entering their execution phase simultaneously.
India: From Price Discovery to FID Wave
At India Energy Week (January 30, 2026), Abhay Bakre, Mission Director of the National Green Hydrogen Mission, confirmed the transition:
- 2025-2027 is the "launchpad period" for India's green hydrogen ecosystem
- Green hydrogen and ammonia prices are converging with conventional fuels
- Domestic electrolyser manufacturing is scaling to support deployment
- European demand mandates position India as a cost-competitive supplier
The window for pilot deployments is closing. Final Investment Decisions are accelerating.
EU: From Voluntary Compliance to Physical Verification
Germany's Second Act on GHG-Reduction (December 2025) transposed RED III with real enforcement:
- Double counting abolished for advanced biofuels (January 1, 2026)
- RFNBO obligations introduced with stricter verification
- Physical inspection requirements now mandatory
- Compliance penalties of €120/GJ for unmet hydrogen obligations
EU buyers will no longer accept self-reported compliance. Physical traceability and audit-ready documentation are now baseline requirements.
Japan: From Voluntary ETS to Mandatory Trading
Japan's GX-ETS shifts from voluntary (Phase 1) to mandatory participation (Phase 2) in spring 2026:
- Large emitters must participate in cap-and-trade
- Carbon credits from J-Credit and Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM) are tradable
- J-Credit methodologies approved for hydrogen and ammonia
- India-Japan JCM bilateral agreement (March 2024) creates direct market linkage
Compliance-driven demand for hydrogen credits emerges Q2 2026.
The Multi-Framework Challenge
The convergence creates a practical problem:
- GHCI-certified exports can meet RFNBO import frameworks for India-EU trade
- GHCI-JCM dual certification enables India-Japan trade plus carbon credit generation
- Multi-market compliance platforms shift from optional to essential infrastructure
Producers navigating all three regimes simultaneously capture premium margins. Those locked into a single framework commoditize.
Risk Factors
- RFNBO sub-quotas in the EU remain low (1.2% by 2030, viewed as insufficient by industry)
- India's deployment is early (2-3 of 158 announced projects operational)
- Verification requirements are tightening faster than supply chain maturity
The bottleneck is no longer policy. It is execution infrastructure.
Timeline
- Q1 2026: Germany's hydrogen accounting systems go live
- Q2 2026: Japan's GX-ETS mandatory phase begins
- Q3 2026: H2Global second tender results announced
- 2027: India's FID wave hits; certification becomes a day-one operational requirement
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