Year in Review: 12 Hydrogen Headlines That Shaped 2025

2025 was the year green hydrogen stopped being a slide deck promise and started becoming infrastructure. Global investment crossed $110 billion. India launched its certification scheme. Japan formalized carbon market mechanisms. And electrolyzers shipped at record volumes.

For those of us building in this space, it was also a year of hard lessons—project cancellations, cost realities, and the gap between announcements and final investment decisions.

Here are twelve stories that defined the year, and what they mean for the decade ahead.

1. India Launches GHCI: The Certification Era Begins

April 29, 2025 — Union Minister Pralhad Joshi launched India's Green Hydrogen Certification Scheme (GHCI), establishing a transparent framework for certifying hydrogen as "green" based on lifecycle emissions. The threshold: ≤2 kg CO₂ equivalent per kg H₂.

The Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) serves as the nodal authority, overseeing implementation and monitoring. This wasn't just paperwork—it was the foundation for India's export ambitions and domestic demand creation.

Why it matters: GHCI enables Indian producers to demonstrate compliance with global standards. Without Certification, hydrogen is just a commodity. With it, hydrogen becomes a tradeable, trusted energy carrier that can access premium markets in the EU, Japan, and Korea.

HyGOAT perspective: This was the catalyst we'd been waiting for. Our platform was built to help producers navigate exactly this complexity—demonstrating real-time Carbon Intensity compliance across GHCI, RFNBO, JCM, and CHPS simultaneously. When GHCI launched, the market moved from "why certify?" to "how do we certify efficiently?"

2. Global Investment Crosses $110 Billion

The Hydrogen Council's Global Hydrogen Compass revealed a landmark: $110 billion in committed investment across 500+ projects that are past FID, in construction, or operational. That's a $35 billion increase from the previous year, continuing a 50% year-over-year growth rate since 2020.

Region	Committed Investment
China	$33 billion
North America	$23 billion
Europe	$19 billion

The supply side has responded too—committed capacity now exceeds 6 million tonnes per year, with 1 mtpa already operational.

The reality check: Despite the headline numbers, only 9% of announced projects have reached FID. The gap between announcements and shovels in the ground remains the industry's central challenge.

3. India-Japan JCM: Article 6.2 Comes to Life

August 7, 2025 — India became the 31st country to join Japan's Joint Crediting Mechanism, marking India's first bilateral carbon market mechanism under the Paris framework.

This wasn't symbolic. JCM creates a pathway for Indian P2X producers to generate internationally tradeable carbon credits—and Japan's appetite for clean hydrogen imports is significant. The mechanism allows projects to count emission reductions toward Japan's NDC while providing financial incentives to Indian producers.

HyGOAT perspective: Multi-jurisdictional compliance is precisely what we solve. A producer exporting to Japan needs JCM alignment. The same facility serving EU offtakers needs RFNBO compliance. And domestic sales require GHCI certification. We built our architecture to handle this complexity from day one.

For a deeper dive into the JCM framework and what it means for Indian P2X exports, see our analysis on Hydrogen Network.

4. China's Electrolyzer Dominance Reshapes Global Supply

China's Electrolyzer industry now commands 65% of global installed capacity and 60% of manufacturing capacity. By 2024's end, 3.2 GW of electrolyzers were delivered worldwide—a record—with cumulative installed capacity surpassing 6 GW.

The cost differential is stark:

China: $600–1,200/kW
Rest of world: $2,000–2,600/kW

Chinese alkaline systems can cost as little as $303/kW for 10 MW installations. Western markets pay roughly four times more.

What this means: For project developers in India and other emerging markets, Chinese equipment offers compelling economics. But it also raises questions about supply chain resilience, technology lock-in, and the fate of domestic manufacturing ambitions.

5. EU Launches €2.5 Billion H2Global Tender

In February 2025, Hintco announced the second H2Global tender—€2.5 billion (potentially rising to €3 billion) organized into five lots: four regional and one global.

This follows the pilot auction that awarded Fertiglobe a contract for renewable ammonia production in Egypt, establishing the first price signal at €1,000/ton (net: €811/ton). European ports will receive shipments starting 2027.

The signal: Europe is willing to pay a premium for certified clean hydrogen derivatives. The H2Global model—using differential contracts to bridge the cost gap between production and offtake prices—creates actionable demand for producers worldwide.

India's opportunity: With competitive renewable energy costs and geographic proximity advantages, Indian producers are well-positioned for these tenders. But participation requires certification infrastructure that meets EU RFNBO standards.

6. India Reaches 50% Non-Fossil Fuel Capacity

June 2025 — India achieved 50% of installed capacity from non-fossil fuel sources—five years ahead of its 2030 Paris Agreement commitment.

This milestone matters for hydrogen because Green Hydrogen is only as clean as its power source. India's renewable energy expansion directly enables competitive green hydrogen production at scale.

The math: Cheap solar and wind are non-negotiable for cost-competitive green hydrogen. India's renewable trajectory gives it a structural advantage in production costs—the question now is whether certification and logistics infrastructure can keep pace.

7. IEA Projects 4.2 Mt Low-Emissions Hydrogen by 2030

The IEA's Global Hydrogen Review 2025 projects low-emissions hydrogen production will reach 4.2 million tonnes per year by 2030—a fivefold increase from 2024. This is based on projects already operational or past FID.

The nuance: This figure is lower than earlier industry ambitions. Cancellations and delays mean announced production capacity for 2030 dropped from 49 Mtpa to 37 Mtpa year-over-year. The industry is recalibrating expectations from hype-cycle projections to achievable buildout.

What survived: More than 200 low-emissions hydrogen production projects have received FID since 2020, up from a handful of demonstrations. Growth is real—just more measured than 2021 enthusiasm suggested.

8. India Designates Three Green Hydrogen Hubs

October 2025 — MNRE recognized three major ports as Green Hydrogen Hubs under NGHM:

Deendayal Port Authority (Gujarat)
V.O. Chidambaranar Port Authority (Tamil Nadu)
Paradip Port Authority (Odisha)

These coastal gateways will serve as integrated centres for production, consumption, and export. The revised guidelines for Hydrogen Valley Innovation Clusters (HVIC) issued in July 2025 complement this infrastructure push.

The logic: Hydrogen logistics are expensive. Co-locating production, storage, and port facilities reduces transportation costs and creates efficient export corridors. These hubs will likely become the first significant commercial hydrogen export points from India.

9. EU Hydrogen Bank Auction Awards 15 Projects

The second European Hydrogen Bank auction closed in February 2025, selecting 15 production projects across 5 countries. Expected production: 2.2 million tonnes of RFNBO by 2035.

Awarded bids ranged from €0.33 to €1.88 per kilogram, with general basket projects clearing at €0.20–0.60/kg. A third auction targeting €1 billion is expected by year-end, completing the €3 billion initiative President von der Leyen promised.

The pricing signal: Sub-€1/kg RFNBO hydrogen production is achievable with European subsidies. This creates a benchmark that producers globally must compete against—or find premium applications that justify higher prices.

10. Japan's Price Gap Support Goes Live

December 2025 — Japan's METI and MLIT approved certification under the Hydrogen Society Promotion Act's price gap support system. Mitsui's U.S. low-carbon ammonia project received approval, marking the mechanism's operationalization.

The system provides 15-year support to bridge the price differential between fossil fuels and low-carbon hydrogen derivatives—essential for making clean hydrogen commercially viable in Japanese industrial applications.

What Japan wants: Reliable, certified supply of low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia. The price gap mechanism makes this economically feasible for suppliers, but Certification and verification infrastructure becomes critical. Without it, projects can't access the support.

11. Korea's CHPS Evolution

South Korea's Clean Hydrogen Portfolio Standard continued evolving in 2025. The second CHPS tender was announced in May, following November 2024's first round results.

Korea leads globally in utility-scale fuel cell power plants (over 1 GW capacity) and the CHPS incentivizes power producers to adopt clean hydrogen. The certification threshold stands at 4 kg CO₂eq/kg H₂.

The pivot: In October 2025, the Ministry abruptly canceled the Clean Hydrogen Power Generation Bidding deadline to align with the government's 2040 coal phase-out plan. This regulatory uncertainty reminded the industry that policy can shift quickly—making certification infrastructure and multi-market access more valuable than single-market dependencies.

12. NGHM Pilot Projects Demonstrate Scale

Under India's National Green Hydrogen Mission, five pilot projects for hydrogen-fuelled vehicles were launched—37 vehicles across 10 national routes including Greater Noida-Delhi-Agra and Ahmedabad-Vadodara-Surat, backed by nine refuelling stations.

Executed by Tata Motors, Reliance Industries, and Ashok Leyland, these projects validate technical feasibility, safety, and economic viability of hydrogen mobility in Indian conditions.

Additionally, 19 companies have been allocated 862,000 tonnes per year of green hydrogen production capacity, and 15 firms received 3,000 MW of annual Electrolyzer manufacturing allocation.

The pattern: NGHM is methodically building the entire value chain—production, manufacturing, logistics, and end-use applications. The mission's ₹19,744 crore outlay through FY2029-30 backs this comprehensive approach.

What 2025 Taught Us

Looking back at these twelve stories, several themes emerge:

Certification is infrastructure. GHCI, RFNBO, JCM, CHPS—these aren't bureaucratic hurdles. They're the trust layer that enables cross-border hydrogen trade. Without verified Carbon Intensity data, hydrogen remains a local commodity.

The gap between announcement and FID is the industry's central challenge. $110 billion committed is remarkable. But 91% of announced projects haven't reached investment decisions. The industry needs more execution, less projection.

Multi-jurisdictional complexity is permanent. A producer selling to Japan, the EU, and domestically must navigate three different Certification regimes. This complexity won't consolidate anytime soon—it's the operating environment.

Cost competitiveness requires certification efficiency. Chinese Electrolyzers and Indian renewable energy create compelling production economics. But accessing premium markets requires demonstrating compliance—efficiently and verifiably.

Looking Ahead to 2026

The foundation is set. Certification schemes are operational. Investment is committed. Hubs are designated. Now comes execution.

At HyGOAT, we're focused on one thing: building the digital infrastructure to certify the Green Hydrogen value chain. The policy infrastructure exists. The demand signals are clear. What's needed now is the operational infrastructure to connect supply and demand across borders.

2025 was the year hydrogen's policy architecture materialized. 2026 will test whether that architecture can support real commercial flows.

Ready to simplify your hydrogen certification journey? Explore HyGOAT's platform or contact our team to discuss your certification requirements.